Published: November 21, 2008 10:46 am      

AAA predicts decline in Thanksgiving travel

AAA is forecasting a small decline in the number of Americans traveling during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Approximately 41 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home this Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a decrease of 600,000 travelers (1.4 percent) from last year’s total of 41.6 million, according to the auto club.

This is the first decrease in Thanksgiving holiday travel since 2002 and is the fourth consecutive travel holiday this year with a year-to-year decline in the number of travelers.

“The overall state of the economy continues to present real challenges for many Americans looking to travel this Thanksgiving,” said Chuck Mai, spokesman for AAA Oklahoma. “However, the desire to spend time with family, combined with significantly lower gasoline prices than earlier this year, is still a powerful draw which is motivating millions to travel this holiday season.”

In Oklahoma, AAA expects 439,500 Oklahomans will be on the road over the holiday, a .6 percent decrease from last year. Another 47,500 will fly to their holiday destination, a drop of six percent from Thanksgiving, 2007.

Retail gasoline prices have plummeted $1.80 in Oklahoma over the past two months. The average for self-serve regular in the state now stands at $1.85 per gallon, compared with $3.65 on Sept. 18.  A year ago, Oklahomans were paying an average of $3.03 at the pump. Today, among the 50 states, only Missouri’s average price of $1.77 per gallon is lower than Oklahoma’s.

AAA reports the national average for self-serve regular gasoline today is $2.07 per gallon, $1.03 less than the $3.10 average of a year ago. 

The AAA Fuel Gauge Report Web site (www.aaafuelgaugereport.com) lists daily price averages for the nation, all 50 states and more than 250 localities for all grades of gasoline. Prices at more than 100,000 stations are surveyed electronically every day.

Nationwide, AAA projects more than 33.2 million Americans (81 percent of all holiday travelers) will get there by motor vehicle, a 1.2 percent decrease from the 33.6 million people who drove a year ago.

Across the U.S., nearly 4.54 million (11 percent of travelers) plan to fly, a 7.2 percent decrease from the 4.9 million who boarded planes last year.

Approximately 3.26 million Americans nationwide (eight percent of holiday travelers) intend to travel by train, bus or other mode of transportation. That is an increase of 5.8 percent (or 180,000 travelers) compared to the 3.08 million who traveled by a mode other than car, pickup, RV or airplane last year.

According to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index (LTI), which is based on available rates this holiday, Thanksgiving travelers can expect to pay more for airfares and car rentals this year. Airfares are eight percent above Thanksgiving 2007. AAA advises travelers that many changes have occurred since the last holiday travel season. Most airlines now charge fees for checked baggage and other previously complimentary services, such as beverages and snacks. Travelers should check with the airline or their travel agent about any additional fees for their trip.

 On average, car rental prices are four percent higher than a year ago for the same period. Car rental rates vary widely from location to location; some cities in AAA’s LTI show significant increases when compared to last year, while others show significant decreases. AAA’s index for car rentals is based on the average lowest intermediate size daily car rate at 20 U.S. airport locations. The rates do not include sales tax, insurance and other miscellaneous charges.

Thanksgiving travelers across the country, however, will find bargains when looking to book their hotel stay this year. Rates for AAA Three Diamond-rated hotels are down an average of ten percent compared to last year.

Research for Thanksgiving weekend holiday travel projections are derived from the Travel Industry Association’s (TIA) Holiday Travel Forecast Model, based on consumer travel intentions and TIA’s quarterly travel forecast data. Travel intentions data are collected through an online survey of more than 2,000 adults nationwide, supplemented by a survey of 6,500 Americans in the top ten U.S. states of origin. Historical travel volume and other economic data such as GDP, disposable income, employment and travel costs (including fuel prices) are also incorporated into the model.

As North America’s largest motoring and leisure travel organization, AAA provides more than 51 million members (327,000 in Oklahoma) with travel, insurance, financial and automotive-related services. Since its founding in 1902, the not-for-profit, fully tax-paying AAA has been a leader and advocate for the safety and security of all travelers. AAA Oklahoma can be visited on the Internet at www.AAA.com.